Alvar Orellana McBride, Executive Director at Griffin Risk explores the regional risks facing Latin America and the Caribbean.
Latin America and the Caribbean present a complex and dynamic security and risk environment, demanding a nuanced understanding of multifaceted challenges.
This article aims to “decode” this landscape, strategically analyzing the key factors shaping regional security and risk.
By examining the interplay of transnational crime, technological vulnerabilities, socioeconomic pressures and geopolitical shifts, this work offers actionable steps for security professionals, policymakers and business leaders seeking to navigate this intricate terrain.
The goal is to illuminate the critical trends and provide a framework for developing effective risk mitigation strategies.
It is not a secret that Latin America and the Caribbean are the riskier regions in the world; statistics speak clearly.
The global average homicide rate in 2021 was 5.8 per 100,000 people, while the Americas reached 15 homicides per 100,000 people, according to the UNODC “Global Study on Homicide 2023”.
According to a report from InSight Crime, in 2024, the homicide rate across 29 Latin American and Caribbean countries rose to 26.81 per 100,000 people.
This alarming level of violence underscores the fundamental interconnectedness of security risks in the region.
However, the risk landscape extends beyond homicide rates.
This pervasive violence creates a cascading effect, impacting every facet of society and businesses.
It erodes investor confidence, disrupts supply chains and fuels social instability.
The high levels of insecurity directly translate into increased operational costs for businesses as they invest in private security, insurance and risk mitigation measures.
Furthermore, it discourages foreign direct investment, hindering economic growth and development.
The fear and instability generated by these high homicide rates also contribute to internal displacement and migration, creating further social and economic strains.
Moreover, this environment fosters a fertile ground for other illicit activities, such as extortion, kidnapping and human trafficking business opportunities that organized crime groups know how to efficiently control and expand upon due to the increase of corruption activities at government and private levels.
The normalization of violence can lead to a breakdown of the rule of law, weaken institutions and undermine the ability of governments to effectively address security challenges.
Therefore, understanding the intertwined nature of security and risk in Latin America requires a holistic approach considering the full spectrum of threats, from violent crime to cyber and economic vulnerabilities and institutional weaknesses.
The news from all countries in the region provides a clear picture that helps us, without being an expert, to evidence the expansion of criminal enterprises in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Before we could see from a “far away position,” at least from the countries that were considered “safe” in the region, the criminal activities led by narco structures that had clear control in specific locations.
But with a rapid expansion due to illegal immigration as a mobilization vector, both new and established organizations such as “Tren de Aragua” (Venezuela), Choneros (Ecuador), Primeiro Comando Capital (PCC, Brazil), Cartel de Sinaloa and Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) from Mexico, Clan del Golfo (Colombia) among others are active in spaces where local governments had no presence, weak control or were fertile to be corrupted.
Organized transnational crime quickly adapts to new opportunities, applying innovative means and capabilities to control the new turf by force, alliances with local organizations or corrupting their authorities and law enforcement.
However, this expansion is not merely a geographic spread but a profound evolution like transnational crime.
These groups are diversifying their portfolios, moving beyond traditional drug trafficking to encompass a broader range of illicit activities, including illegal mining, human trafficking, arms smuggling and cyber-crime.
The digital realm has become a critical battleground, with criminal organizations leveraging sophisticated cyber-tools for money laundering, data theft and the disruption of critical infrastructure.
The expansion also removes borders and blurs the capabilities of governments and private companies to clearly understand the players in-game, exposing legal organizations to severe risk by including criminal structures as stakeholders.
Based on a ITU (International Telecommunication Union) study in 2024, Brazil is the leading country in the region in the cybersecurity index, followed by Ecuador, Mexico and Uruguay.
However, when talking more closely with government and private organizations, it is easy to evidence that we are good at creating policies and procedures, but true internalization is still far away.
Typically, even multinational companies rest on having corporate cybersecurity services and believe that under that umbrella, their cyber-risk is completely under control.
The lack of maturity-level audits, local cybersecurity programs and mitigations provides a fertile ground for attackers to successfully obtain their illegal objectives.
Several critical factors exacerbate the disconnection between policy and practice.
First, the rapid pace of digital transformation in the region has expanded the attack surface exponentially while offering immense economic opportunities.
Second, the region faces a significant shortage of cybersecurity professionals, which, combined with the lack of investment in awareness and defense technologies, hinders organizations’ abilities to effectively face their cyber-threats.
A study by CEPLAN (Centro Nacional de Planeamiento Estratégico, Perú) “Global and National Risks and Opportunities for Peru” (“Riesgos y Oportunidades Globales y Nacionales para el Perú”) details the risks that are completely applicable for the entire region, highlighting as the most relevant: escalation of criminality, cross-border expansion of criminal organizations, strengthening of illegal economies and the rise of demagogic and populist powers.
These risks are not isolated phenomena; they are deeply intertwined with the socioeconomic fabric of Latin America and the Caribbean.
Persistent poverty and lack of access to basic services created a breeding ground for social unrest and fertile recruitment grounds for criminal organizations.
The desperation experienced by marginalized populations makes them vulnerable to the allure of illicit activities, which offer a seemingly quick path to economic security.
Moreover, the erosion of trust in government institutions, fueled by corruption and perceived ineffectiveness, creates a vacuum often filled by leaders who exploit societal grievances for political gain.
The strengthening of illegal economies, driven by lucrative drug and other illicit activities, not only undermines legitimate economic development but also fuels corruption and violence.
The cross-border expansion exacerbates these challenges, as it allows them to operate with impunity across the region and the vast sum of money these economies generate allows criminal organizations to infiltrate and corrupt state institutions, further weakening the rule of law.
In my experience, I have observed that many organizations, despite perceived preparedness, operate with flawed risk management programs.
These programs often fail to accurately identify and map risks critical to business continuity, relying instead on cumbersome bureaucratic processes.
This results in expensive, inefficient operations that lack clear mitigation strategies and, critically, fail to provide decision-makers with a clear understanding of their actual risk exposure.
Consequently, leadership is often misinformed, leading to an inaccurate assessment of their “risk appetite.”
This deficiency is especially problematic in the dynamic and volatile Latin American and Caribbean environments.
To counter this, organizations in Latin America and the Caribbean must transition to proactive, data-driven strategies.
These include comprehensive risk mapping, streamlined risk communication, a culture of risk awareness through training and simulations, leveraging technology like AI, and fostering strong public-private partnerships.
By adopting these measures, organizations in Latin America and the Caribbean can better navigate the complex regional landscape, enhance resilience and make informed decisions regarding security and risk.
This article was originally published in the April edition of Security Journal Americas. To read your FREE digital edition, click here.