Victor Panchak, CPP, Security Director and Partner at International SOS, explores how to shape security preparedness in the face of an ever-evolving geopolitical landscape.
It is getting obvious that as geopolitical issues rise in our polarized world, so does the likelihood that they will affect the global operation’s performance, reputation, security and of course people.
According to the US National Intelligence Council’s Report Global Trends 2040, in the next two decades alone, competition for global influence is likely to reach its highest level since the Cold War.
That being said – now is the time for corporations to assess anew their escalating risk matrix, posed by global political and socio-economic tensions.
So, how can organizations best manage complicated security threats in this geopolitically polarized world?
I am from Ukraine and on 24 February 2022 I was in my home country.
On the eve of the Russian invasion, a security survey was conducted by ASIS Ukraine in partnership with a few local organizations on business preparedness for the war in Ukraine.
The results showed quite a pessimistic picture, with 70% of more than the 100 companies that participated in the survey responding they were not ready.
Going into details of the survey, 54% of all companies did not take particular steps to prepare for the conflict; while 29% took some steps solely with their in-house resources; and it was only 5% that used external security consultants and advisors to help them get prepared.
Answering the question why, it is worth mentioning that some companies seem to be willing to respond to a crisis, rather than predicting it, which is not a solid way to run a business.
The ability to be resilient following a crisis comes back, first of all, to proper planning, where clarity on risk tolerance and risk exposure empowers and supports decision makers during the crisis management process.
To help mitigate the impact of geopolitical risks, it’s important for leaders to first understand what that impact may look like.
For example, does a company have to consider how political instability and disturbances affect its business operations and, say, its supply chain security?
The simple answer is yes.
The COVID-19 pandemic and the global response to its evolution demonstrated that it is proactive geopolitical risk management that has became critical for maintaining enterprise resilience and security.
That is why business leaders may also need to address the potential reputational risks and assess the impact on their financial markets and investment decisions, accordingly.
So, what are the risk management components that we would recommend to essentially take into consideration?
According to the International SOS 2023 Risk Outlook, these should include, but not be limited to, the following:
So, the business needs to leverage decision intelligence to navigate through and mitigate the impact of geopolitical risks, as this is key to ensuring that the information it possesses is accurate and informative.
The Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Hamas conflicts have been the defining security issues in 2023 and will probably continue to remain critical in 2024.
Geopolitics and the threat of state versus state conflict is back on the corporate risk agenda.
While any far-reaching impacts of these conflicts will remain key features of the global risk environment in 2024, one thing that is already apparent is that it is only a combination of hard-powers and soft-powers that may help balance geopolitical risk.
That being said, it is suggested that business use a simple two-step model to manage geopolitical risks, namely:
While the long-term effects of global events like the conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, or the future of the US-China relations, are still unclear, geopolitical tensions will put business security at significant risk.
Rephrasing the quote of a former Intel CEO Andy Grove that only the paranoid will survive, with tectonic shifts in geopolitics, rumbling from the Ukraine/Russian and Israel/Hamas conflicts, China’s re-emergence on the global scene and unpredictable climate change, companies must constantly be on guard.
They should regularly look up from tending to immediate needs of their operating environments to learn, adapt and prepare for external and internal shocks.
Viktor Panchak is a Security Director and Partner at International SOS and a senior corporate security consultant.
He has more than 25 years of successful career experience in both public and private security, safety, consultancy, as well as business administration and commercial management.
Panchak is also a graduate of Georgetown University in Washington DC, and the first Ukrainian professional who received the highest global security CPP certification (Certified Protection Professional).
Additionally, he is the Regional Vice President (Region 9E) and Steering Committee member at ASIS Professional Development Community.
The views expressed by our contributors are not necessarily the views held by Centurian Media.