Global trends impacting security

Marcus Almeida, CEO at DISRUPT – CT gives his recommendations for security leaders over the next 12 months.

“Contemporary crises”

We live in an era marked by global interdependence, where localized events trigger systemic impacts across connected networks.

Contemporary crises transcend borders and sectors, forming what the World Economic Forum (WEF) calls a “polycrisis”: multiple simultaneous and interconnected crises amplified by the complexity of modern systems.

In this context, security is no longer just an operational concern – it has become a strategic pillar for ensuring resilience amid geopolitical and economic instability.

Geopolitical influence on security horizons

According to the WEF Global Risks Report, three global trends will directly affect the Americas in the short (2025 – 2027) and medium term (2027 – 2030):

1. Geopolitical instability: Conflicts in Eastern Europe, tensions in the South China Sea and regional disputes will disrupt supply chains and escalate security risks
2. Climate change: Extreme weather events will pressure critical sectors like agribusiness, energy and infrastructure
3. Technological fragmentation: The tech race between China and the US may fracture digital supply chains, demanding adaptive and resilient strategies

These drivers will intensify the complexity of risk management across the Americas.

Security as a strategic pillar

In “Tornar Simples! O Segredo das Decisões Complexas Estruturadas”, I highlight the importance of integrating structured decision-support systems (DSS), predictive tools and dynamic contingency planning.

Modern security strategies must:

• Integrate structured and unstructured data
• Adopt AI-based predictive models
• Foster real-time situational awareness

Creating “war rooms” – command centers for crisis management – ensures quick, informed and assertive responses during periods of volatility.

Key security trends for 2025

1. Cybersecurity as a priority: Increasingly sophisticated attacks will target critical infrastructures and financial systems
2. Climate resilience: Companies must prepare for operational continuity amid extreme events and resource shortages
3. Collaborative governance: Public-private partnerships will play a vital role in coordinated crisis responses
4. Managing interdependencies: Mapping interconnections across sectors (energy, healthcare and logistics) will reduce cascading failures

Recommendations for leaders

• Anticipate risks: Use predictive tools and scenario modeling
• Invest in technology: AI, big data and analytics are non-negotiable
• Build resilience: Create a culture of adaptability and continuous training
• Strengthen collaboration: Engage in multi-sectoral partnerships
• Adopt DSS frameworks: Structured decision systems provide clarity and speed in high-pressure situations

Resilience as a competitive edge

Security is no longer just about defense – it’s about enabling sustainable growth and innovation. As highlighted in “Tornar Simples!”, well-structured decisions are a competitive advantage in a chaotic world.

Leading with security in 2025 means leading with vision, adaptability and data-driven clarity.

Marcus Almeida

Marcus is CEO at DISRUPT – CT, a consultancy and mentoring firm specializing in risk management, crisis management, business continuity, corporate resilience, strategic shielding and Earth observation via satellites.

The company focuses on supporting strategic decision-making. Marcus is also the author of the book “Tornar Simples: O Segredo das Decisões Complexas Estruturadas” (Make It Simple: The Secret of Structured Complex Decisions).

This article was originally published in the special February Influencers Edition of Security Journal Americas. To read your FREE digital edition, click here.