Peter Bäckman, Founder and Managing Partner, TEDCAP describes how the landscape of geopolitics will shape the future of security.

A new world order requires a new theoretical approach.

As we enter 2024, the state of affairs requires a break from linear thinking and embracing the complexity that is all around us.

In these times of volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA), we find ourselves just a few moments into the new year, witnessing the world tremor from massive ordinances over Europe and the Middle East, coupled with rumblings of conflict in the East, the Americas and Africa.

Cyber-attacks have become mainstream and the economic system is rapidly mutating.

The prevalence of misinformation has reached such levels that grasping reality itself seems elusive.

Facing a grim risk scenario for 2024, including regional wars, climate crises, political upheavals, technological shocks, culture wars and even the enigmatic prospect of UFOs, it seems that the familiar system we once deemed as “normality” is unraveling at the seams.

What may appear as chaos and disorder could, in reality, be the last convulsions of a linear system collapsing under the weight of its inability to fully comprehend contemporary realities.

Yet, as we grapple with understanding complexity, risks are still perceived as exceptions rather than the norm.

Late-stage capitalism relies on a collective agreement of normality, requiring a sense of continuity and even hope for the system to function.

The traditional view of organizations as impenetrable fortresses, steadfastly resisting external threats, is becoming increasingly outdated in today’s risk management theory.

Instead, a more apt analogy would liken organizations to a Jenga puzzle – a delicate balance of decisions, chance occurrences and external pressures that constantly shape its structure and stability.

Every decision made within an organization – whether strategic, operational or tactical – has ripple effects that reverberate throughout the entire ecosystem.

Like removing a block from a Jenga tower, each choice introduces a degree of uncertainty.

In contemporary geopolitics and corporate risk management, each decision that the players make, the game becomes more complex.

Each diplomatic maneuver, policy shift or strategic alliance has a profound impact on the stability of the global order.

In the words of Davis Professor of Complexity at the Santa Fe Institute, Melanie Mitchell: “In a complex system, the whole is not just the sum of its parts; it’s the product of their interactions.”

As one piece is moved, the potential for a cascade of consequences arise.

With the continuous integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into business operations and an increasingly uncertain global power structure, it’s no longer enough to only have an integrated vision.

Business leaders must develop a multifaceted strategy that seamlessly integrates technological innovation with a risk-aware global perspective.

By adopting a holistic and community centered approach, leaders can navigate complexity, seize opportunities and drive sustainable growth in an increasingly interconnected world.

Reducing uncertainties is not about eliminating risks entirely – that’s an impossible feat. Instead, it’s about enhancing organizational resilience and agility.

Leveraging data-driven insights, new, stronger and more integrated organizations can navigate contemporary business challenges, drive innovation, enhance customer satisfaction and ensure long-term sustainability and preparation – a steady hand to win at Jenga.

About Peter Bäckman

Peter is a highly influential security professional with over 30 years of experience in safeguarding high-net-worth individuals, advising government leaders and managing risks for Fortune 100 organizations across Europe, the Caribbean and Latin America.

He is an award-winning author and speaker, whose accomplishments have been acknowledged by industry organizations and magazines.

This article was originally published in the Special February Influencers Edition of Security Journal Americas. To read your FREE digital edition, click here.