The uncomfortable truth is that 2026 will not be defined by what Latin America wants. It will be defined by what the major powers want from Latin America, writes Peter Bäckman, CEO and Founding Partner, TEDCAP.
The US wants security corridors, China wants infrastructure footholds, Russia wants symbolic disruption and the expanded BRICS ecosystem wants political alignment and market access.
The region can either brace for another round of imperial tug-of-war or finally recognize that its greatest strength is collective leverage, not individual improvisation.
Latin America is entering the most contested year since the end of the Cold War.
But this time, the battleground is not ideology; it’s access.
Access to ports, minerals, airspace, rare earths, data, shipping lanes and the kind of digital infrastructure that decides who gets to switch off the lights if things get unfriendly.
The US has rediscovered the Caribbean, not out of affection, but because Washington has finally noticed how close Venezuela, China and Russia have drifted into its maritime periphery.
None of this will be marketed as militarization, of course. It will be “capacity building”, the diplomatic version of a polite tap on the shoulder that means: “remind everyone whose neighborhood this is.”
China, meanwhile, won’t send warships; they’ll send construction cranes.
Beijing’s 2026 strategy in the Americas is already written in concrete: ports, energy grids, resorts, data centers and 5G corridors.
Where Washington builds alliances, China builds infrastructure – and in the modern world, only one of those can be repossessed if you miss a payment.
And then there is BRICS, now an enlarged, slightly chaotic, but increasingly unavoidable player.
It offers something Latin America has begged for since independence: financial alternatives.
New development banks, payment systems outside the dollar and a growing political chorus saying, in diplomatic terms, “maybe we don’t have to ask Washington first.”
So what do we get when you mix military corridors, Chinese credit lines, Russian theatrics and BRICS experimentation?
A region that risks being pulled apart by the gravitational forces of competing empires, unless it finally decides to act like a bloc rather than a collection of solo acts with trust issues.
The private sector cannot stop great powers from competing in Latin America. But it can stop the region from becoming collateral damage.
By cooperating across borders, industries and supply chains, businesses can create a resilience architecture that governments alone have never managed to build.
To build that leverage, the region’s industries must look beyond national borders and start aligning their risk frameworks, crisis coordination protocols and continuity standards.
Collective resilience isn’t just political – it’s technical, procedural and built one agreement at a time.
In 2026, sovereignty will be measured not by flags but by how prepared organizations are to stay operational when geopolitics enters the operating environment.
If the private sector acts collectively, Latin America becomes a negotiating bloc. If it does not, the region remains the playing field.
Peter is the Executive Director and Founding Partner of TEDCAP, a leading consultancy specializing in risk management, crisis response and organizational resilience.
With more than 30 years of award-winning expertise, Peter is widely recognized as a trusted authority in protecting high-net-worth individuals, government officials and political leaders, as well as safeguarding complex operations for multinational organizations, particularly within the Caribbean and Latin America.
Peter brings extensive expertise in comprehensive risk assessment and management, crisis management, business continuity, disaster preparedness and organizational resilience.
Peter has held various leadership positions within ASIS International, including serving as President of the Dominican Republic Chapter, Regional Assistant to the Vice President (ARVP) for the Caribbean region and as a member of the Latin America Mentoring Committee.
This article was originally published in the February edition of Security Journal Americas. To read your FREE digital edition, click here.